We are a vacation rental and property management company in Baja California Sur and recently I had been receiving more and more e-mails and calls from clients, who are worried about traveling to Mexico, because of the swine-flu outbreak.
After investigating the information that is available about this supposed pandemic, I can honestly say, that really there is not much to worry about. Let us first have a look at the statistics:
As of May 5th, 2009 according to the official Health Organization of Mexico, the Secretaría de Salud there have been 1112 confirmed cases of H1N1 infections in all of Mexico since the first case was reported in the beginning of April this year. 42 of these confirmed cases actually died as a result of their infection (32 of those deaths happened in Mexico city, 6 in the State of Mexico). In Baja California Norte there had been around 18 confirmed H1N1 infections, none in Baja California Sur. The US counted 286 cases with H1N1 virus up to the 30th of April and Canada 101.
Mexican authorities state, that they have sufficient stocks of antiviral injections to control any future outbreaks (1,810,000 shots are stored at health centers all over the country of which 2931 are in baja California Sur).
Most cases were reported between the 25th and the 29th of April, since then there has been a significant drop in newly reported cases from around 200 on the 28th of April to 10 on the 2nd of May. Considering the incubation period of this influence (usually 24 hours to 3 days) it is expected that the downward tendency of new infections will continue, which means the virus is controlled and there is no more exponential growth.
All this is already a calming notice, however looking at the statistics the numbers struck me as rather insignificant….should 1112 swine flu cases in a country with a population of nearly 110.000.000 really worry me to the point, where I prefer to lock myself into my house and avoid public places?
1112 represents around 0,0000001 % of the total population in Mexico and 0,00006% of the total population of the Districto Federal with around 20.000.000 people. So really, what are the chances of getting in contact with an infected person (who, by the way will probably be staying at home or at the hospital, which is what sick people do). By the way, last year 36,000 people died of the regular flu here In Mexico and that didn’t get any attention from anyone…why? Because it’s a small number of people in a country as big as this. Now you will say…”but the World Health Organisation marked this outbreak as a level 5 pandemic”….let’s check what that means:
“The WHO's phase 5 alert level is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least 2 countries in a single WHO region. The final phase, phase 6, indicates that a global pandemic is under way and is characterized by community-level outbreaks in at least 1 other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in phase 5”
So, if we have 10 people in Mexico infected with on type of virus and one of them goes to the USA and infects another 2 people there, we have a pandemic level 5. What I mean to say is, that pandemic does not mean there have to be huge numbers cases…it just means the virus spread to another country too.
Currently the virus has been detected in all the European countries, in small numbers (54 cases in Spain, 18 in the UK, 8 in Germany….), a couple of cases in Israel, a couple in Asia…and of course quite a few in the US and Canada…in other words…if you really want to avoid being in contact with a H1N1 infected person…no matter how slim the chance is in any case, you will really have to lock yourself into your house and let nobody in.
Otherwise…just forget about it and travel where-ever you want, the possibility of being infected will not be bigger whether you are in Toronto, New York or Guadalajara.
Thank you!
www.wolf-pm-rentals.com
www.wolf-pm.com